A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Both writes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has has something to gain from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
